A Deeper Dive Into The Ethnicity Of Births In England and Wales: 2007 to 2025
White British births hit a record low of just 53% in 2025
Projections vary on exactly when White Britons will become a minority. David Coleman, now Emeritus Professor of Demography at Oxford University, released a population projection in 2010 that projected White Britons would become a minority in 2066. However, given recent levels of immigration and declining birth rates, this tipping point could be reached much sooner. In an article published in The Daily Mail, David Coleman now estimates that White Britons will become a minority by 2053, 13 years earlier than his original projection.
Some other population projections are more optimistic. Matt Goodwin, in partnership with the The Centre for Heterodox Social Science, released a report in May 2025 that estimated White Britons will become a minority in 2063.
Whether the threshold is passed in the 2050s or 2060s, the exact date the transition happens is largely irrelevant. The fact is, on current trends, it's going to happen sometime around the middle of this century, and this transition will happen much sooner amongst younger people.
At the time of the 2021 census, the median age of the White Brit was 45 years old. An increase from a median age of 42 years old, at the time of the 2011 census. By the time of the next census, which is scheduled to take place in 2031, the average White Brit will be approaching ~50 years old. Many of these people won't have more children (assuming they had any in the first place) and many will be nearing retirement age. This is to say the census is a lagging indicator, not a leading indicator. If you truly want a preview on the demographic future of a nation, you need only look at births.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has published the ethnicity of births in England and Wales since 2007, with the latest release covering 2025. The birth characteristics 2022 edition covers the ethnicity of births from 2007 to 2022. For 2023, 2024 and 2025, this can be found in the 2023, 2024 and 2025 edition of the births in England and Wales: linked births releases.
If we plot the percentage of White British births as a percentage of all births in England and Wales, they have declined from 63.8% in 2007 to 53.1% in 2025.
The increase in the percentage of White British births from 2007/2008 to 2009/2011 is likely due to more births having an ethnicity stated. In 2007, 9.1% of births in England and Wales didn't have an ethnicity stated. By 2010, this number had fallen to 4% and has remained around 3.5% since.
Below I have created a GIF showing the ethnicity of births in England and Wales, from 2007 to 2025, with all ethnic groups available from the ONS releases, including not stated; these include:
- White British
- Any other White background (Other White)
- Bangladeshi
- Indian
- Pakistani
- Any other Asian background (Other Asian)
- Black African
- Black Caribbean
- Any other Black background (Other Black)
- Mixed/multiple (Mixed)
- Any other ethnic group (Other)
- Not stated
I have condensed some to improve readability, e.g. "Any other Asian background" becomes "Other Asian".
The increase in non-EU migration since Brexit (The Boriswave) has led to a noticeable change in the demographic makeup of births in England and Wales. The UK has seen large numbers of migrant arrive from countries like Pakistan, Bangladesh, India and various African countries, which explains the increased share of births since 2021.